Eldon Rude of Austin MetroStudy gave his third quarter report, “Housing Update and Economic Outlook,” last week, and here are some notes from his presentation.

In general, we have some ongoing challenges in our local market, but there are several factors that set us apart from more troubled parts of the country.  Texas continues to be number one in job growth, with Austin high on all national lists for jobs, property appreciation and low inventory of homes for sale.

-          Nationally, consumer confidence is at its lowest mark in many years, and we’re losing jobs.  Keep this in mind when processing the national news headlines!

-          Locally, Texas leads the nation in job growth, with 4 Texas metro markets in the top 10 for job creation, including Austin at #6 and San Antonio at #7.

-          Single Family new home starts are down 42% nationally.  SF starts are down 41% in Texas, although Texas us still #1 on the list for new starts.

-          In the apartment market, occupancy is beginning to decline (at 91.4% city-wide), with rates flattening at $.98 per square foot on average.

-          In the resale market, inventory is holding at 6 months, although we should anticipate an increase in the spring when more homes come on the market.

-          Among submarkets in the Austin area, Southern Travis County is still the most active in new home starts.

-          The highest months of supply of finished vacant homes is in Lake South, where sales have slowed around high price points. Other areas with over a 7 months supply are Hays West, Central South Austin, Central North Austin, and Round Rock/183.

-          POSITIVE INDICATORS: Austin has the second lowest months of supply of new homes in all Metro Study markets nationally, second only to San Antonio. Austin is 4^th lowest in resale inventory of all Metro Study markets nationally, after Houston, Denver and Sacramento. This makes our market well-positioned to experience an early recovery.

-          Possible national economic threats looming ahead include: scarce availability of financing; selective corporate bailouts; scarce down-payment assistance; slowing job growth; increase in foreclosures.

-          Economic boosters include: Austin has never experienced a “bubble” in home prices and prices are holding; inventories are manageable; foreclosures in Austin have remained moderate; Central Texas is poised for significant growth in population over the next 5-10 years; tight financing has created pent-up demand for homes that will give our market a boost when more financing options become available; businesses continue to locate in Austin; THE ELECTION IS OVER.

 

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